Voter Demographics

Over at the Dick Howe Blog Site is a series of posts looking at the election for US Senator, back on 25 June 2013, when our new Junior Senator became the Democrat, Edward Markey.

The most recent installment was about Voter Demographics.  We are promised a fourth installment, which "will scrutinize the demographics of those who voted in both the 2011 city election and in the 2013 Senate election."

The first installment looked at the overall numbers as of 1 January 2013.  The interesting part, to me was that Unenrolled outnumber Democrats, who outnumber Republicans.

  • Democrats – 22,005 (40%)
  • Republicans – 4,827 (9%)
  • Unenrolled – 27,731 (50%)

The next installment looked at the voters in the 2011 municipal election, where there was a turnout of about 9500.

Observations? The group that accounts for the most votes is the 50-59 cohort (2245 votes from this group of a total of 9513 cast). The group that contains the most reliable voters is the 70-79 cohort (1,372 of 3,414 voted which is 40%).

 

If you are serious about understanding the voters, it might be worth a stop at Dick Howe's Blog.

Remember, numbers don't lie.

Oh, and it sure looks like an enthusiasm gap on our part.

Regards  --  Cliff

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At Least One Person Talking of Challenging Niki for 3rd District

The [Lowell] Sun had an article earlier in the month about Dr Timothy Imholt, of Methuen, who is preparing to challenge US Representative Niki Tsongas, Democrat, from the 3rd Congressional District here in the Commonwealth of Massachusetts.  Below are some extracts from the article, written by Reporter Rick Sobey.

Of course it will be a challenge.  The incumbent is in a strong position.  The article quotes Frank Talty, co-director of the UMass Lowell Center for Public Opinion.  (We don't often hear from Mr Talty, do we?)  Mr Talty asserts that the Republicans should not even think about this district.  "Niki has accrued a strong reputation, has been very visible in the community, and is stronger than when she came in, so it will be real tough for a Republican,"

Regards  --  Cliff

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State GOP Committee Needs to Reach Out

In today's edition of The [Lowell] Sun is a response to an earlier OpEd by Columnist Peter Lucas.  Mr Lucas talked about how good things look for the Mass GOP in 2014.  This letter, found here, says there is a lot of work to be done.

Regards  —  Cliff

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The Surveillance Society

A friend of mine, commenting on the depth and breadth of Federal Government (and perhaps even some States and Cities) electronic surveillance made the following point:

You may count me among the paranoid/suspicious/worried/angry and ban me forever from the Beltway Club.  For me the issue is clear.  The people have to have the information necessary to form reasonable opinions, and this includes  laws.   Are they willing to sacrifice their rights, including probable cause, for imagined victories in a war on terror that is itself quite nebulous.  Have NSA whistle blowers been presented to the public to present their arguments?  Has anyone asked me if I am willing to continue to cede my rights?

What surprises me the most is reading Loop comments on this issue.  I read this morning that 3 Americans had been killed in Afghanistan by an Afghan soldier and would like someone to explain to me "for what?"  If people are dying to promote an ideal and to protect our freedom (saw this on a poster somewhere), we had better be sure that those freedoms are real.  We can survive another attack; our system of government cannot survive continued attacks on our civil liberties. Maybe we have to water the tree of liberty once in a while.

What I want to see is a very public and understandable discussion/debate on who we are and what is important, to include the people (as in We the People) who still, I hope, form the backbone of the country.  Of course, the "government" can invoke the State Secrets rule without further explanation.  Then it can classify the devil out of various claims so that we all feel safer.  Well,  I do not feel safer.  I feel threatened, and not only by Al Qaeda.

I believe this person's call for "a very public and understandable discussion/debate on who we are and what is important, to include the people (as in We the People) who still, I hope, form the backbone of the country" is exactly what we need, both in 2014 and 2016.  Republicans who run on this issue will provide clarity for the voters.

Regards  —  Cliff

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LRCC Meeting Thursday, 4 April

This Thursday the LRCC will be meeting UPSTAIRS at the VFW.  We will enter via the bar, downstairs, and then move up to the main floor, which is more "smoke free".

We will have the following Agenda:

  1. Greet Visitors.
  2. Approve minutes from last meeting.
  3. Treasurer's Report (Submitted electronically, as Kamal Jain is unavailable).
  4. Old Business: (Planned Activities, Ward Reorganizations, Get Out the Vote)
  5. New Business: (Current local political controversy consequences, Possible Primary debates, Senate Primary Candidates)
  6. Comments from Surrogates for Senate Primary Race Candidates.
  7. Comments from the State Committee Reps.

Regards  --  Cliff

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The People Are Not Happy

At The Boston Herald is an article on East Walpole baker Ms Andrea Taber, who stopped accepting EBT cards (food stamps) for her whoopie pies and pastries.  She has started her own political movement, "Operation Empty Wallet".

Does anyone have any 'gen on Ms Taber or her movement?

Regards  --  Cliff

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The New Republican Man (or not)

On Lowell Telecommunications Corporation's City Life show this last Friday the Dracut co-host, Mr Brian Bond, said that the Republican Party, to survive, will have to move more to the center, to be more moderate.

What does that even mean?  And, more important, what will that mean for garnering votes?

It would seem the last General Election showed that a hard left Democrat (Professor Elizabeth Warren) can garner more votes than a moderate or centrist Republican (Senator Scott Brown).

What is it that Republicans can give up to become more centrist?

On the one hand they can give up firm positions on Social Issues, like abortion.  However, what can they offer that will make Democrats and Independents (Unenrolled) happy.  Will they have to agree to abortion on demand, or can they hold out for live-birth or partial birth abortion laws?

To be more moderate, will they have to agree that the Second Amendment is a source of much trouble in this nation and call for curtailing gun rights?  Will Senator Diane Feinstein be their model?

What about workfare vs welfare?  Will Republicans have to move toward President Obama’s position or will they be safe holding to something closer to what Republicans agreed to with President Bill Clinton, which reduced the welfare roles?

Will these Republicans be allowed to hold to the importance of American support to Israel, or is that becoming too radical?

Having gone wobbly on social issues, what will Republicans then have to offer?  Will they be able to say that, one. the budget should not exceed the revenue and two, that revenue needs to be at or less than 21.5% of GDP, to allow the economy room to grow?

Will it still be OK to say that Keynesian economics didn’t work in the 1930s and it won’t work today?

What will this new Republican look like and will anyone stand up and salute him?

I fear he will be amorphous and that none will salute him.

Regards  —  Cliff

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What Is Happening?

Over at The [Lowell] Sun is an Editorial today suggesting we should just sit out the Special Election this year.  The "Bottom Line" from the editorial is:

If the GOP doesn't have a winnable candidate for the upcoming U.S. Senate race, it would be wise to pass it up and chart a patient, strategic, build-up-the-campaign-coffers course for the near future. Two years from now, Democrat-driven higher taxes, higher Obamacare costs, higher budget deficits and an underachieving economy are sure to open the door to political opportunity.

That is rational advice, but politics isn't rational business.  What is that line from the Ancient Greek leader to his soldiers?  "I don't want any of you showing how smart you are by calculating the odds.  We argo just going to go straight at them."

Here is what Joe Martin, of North Attleboro, Republican and TWICE Speaker of the US House of Representatives, said in 1960:

The shattering defeats of Hoover, Landon, and Wilkie made it far more difficult to keep the Republican Party alive and functioning than many remember in the prosperous times that shine upon the party now.

Remember—if it was going to be easy, they could have picked anyone.  As it is, we are the ones selected.

Regards  --  Cliff

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Congratulations to Kristen Hughes

On behalf of the Lowell Republican City Committee I would like to pass my congratulations to Quincy City Councilor Kristen Hughes, for her election as Chairman of our Mass GOP.

We are looking forward to a bright new future here in the Massachusetts Republican Party.

Regards  —  Cliff

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We Need To Be Open

Earlier this week The Boston Herald had a headline saying Republicans are begging former Senator Scott Brown to saddle up again to run for the US Senate. Frankly, this Republican thought it was time for Scott Brown to rest up and get ready to run for Governor.  I think he agrees.  Here are his comments from today.

“Over these past few weeks I have given serious thought about the possibility of running again, as events have created another vacancy requiring another special election.  I have received a lot of encouragement from friends and supporters to become a candidate, and my competitive instincts were leading in the same direction,” he said in a statement.

“Even so, I was not at all certain that a third Senate campaign in less than four years, and the prospect of returning to a Congress even more partisan than the one I left, was really the best way for me to continue in public service at this time.  And I know it’s not the only way for me to advance the ideals and causes that matter most to me,” he said.

“That is why I am announcing today that I will not be a candidate for the United States Senate in the upcoming special election,” Brown concluded.

I think Scott Brown has served us well and I thank him for his service to the Commonwealth and the Party, but it is time to look elsewhere for THIS Senate Race.

My preference is former Lieutenant Governor Kerry Murphy Healey.

Regards  —  Cliff

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